Paris Climate Agreement goals to curb global warming are still achievable: study

A new study led by the University of Colorado at Boulder has found that the Paris Climate Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to well below 2, preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius, is still within reach. handy. Additionally, the study also notes that recent data suggests that worst-case doomsday scenarios are no longer plausible. Roger Pielke Jr., lead author of the study, said according to the CU Boulder report:

This is good news that is cautiously optimistic about where the world is now, about where we thought we were. The objective of the two degrees of Paris remains within reach.

Climate forecast for the century

Published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, the study notes that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted warming of between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius by 2100. The forecast indicates that the warming will would produce at a median of 2.2 degrees Celsius and is much better than 4 or 5 degrees Celsius of worst-case warming at the same time.

This study looked at different scenarios created by the climate research community to explore and plan possible futures and how they would evolve under various factors, including different climate policies and greenhouse gas emissions. For this study, Pielke Jr. and his team looked at 1,311 climate scenarios and compared them to projected growth rates of fossil fuels and industry carbon dioxide emissions for 2005-2050. “These scenarios represent plausible futures if current trends continue and countries adopt the climate policies they have already announced to reduce carbon emissions,” CU Boulder said.

As mentioned above, the results revealed that worst-case scenarios are less plausible and that warming would be lower than expected due to lower emission levels. However, experts noted that the plausibility of the worst-case scenarios has diminished because they were created more than a decade ago. “There is a need for these scenarios to be updated more frequently. Researchers may be using a 2005 scenario, but we need a 2022 perspective. You will have better policies if you have a more accurate understanding of the problem. , regardless of the political context, the implications are one way or the other,” said Pielke Jr.

Image: Unsplash

Teresa H. Sadler