A new index reveals the influence of climate change on local weather in real time

The Climate Change Index (CSI) reveals the level of influence of carbon emissions on daily high and low temperatures covering the entire continental United States, shown on a simple numerical scale. CSI levels indicate how much more likely or frequent overnight high temperatures and lows have become in a warmer climate.

For example, a CSI level of 2 means today’s temperature has been made at least 2 times more likely, or twice as frequent, than it would have been without human-caused climate change. A CSI level of 5 means local temperatures have been made at least 5 times more likely. The CSI also indicates where daily temperatures have become less likely in a warming world. The tool displays a color-coded map to show CSI levels for high and low temperatures for the current day, the previous day, and the next two days.

The CSI is based on calculations based on observations and models detailed in a methods document,”A multi-method framework for real-time global climate attributionpublished this month in Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography.

“Climate change is invisible to most people, but it is already affecting our daily lives. When it is too hot to work safely outside, play sports or walk down a city street, the “Climate Shift Index reveals its fingerprint. When crops wither, when tornadoes or fires erupt in unseasonable heat, the Climate Shift Index can put these events into context.” Benjamin Strauss, said the CEO and chief scientist of Climate Central, and co-author of the methods article. “The Climate Change Index will inform everyday conversations with science about how our lives and our communities are changing around us.”

Assessing the impact of climate change on daily weather adds an essential dimension to the science of attribution, says co-author Friederike Ottolecturer in climate science at Imperial College London and co-director of Global Weather Allocation: “When extreme weather conditions occur, we speak of climate change – when it hits us in the face. But climate change affects the weather every day, the temperatures most strongly, with consequences that we do not even have not begun to think, let alone calculate and To truly adapt, we must first understand the impacts of climate change in a more complete way.Starting with daily temperatures is an important complement to the changes in extremes we examine in WWA .

Paul Douglasco-founder and senior meteorologist at US Weather Consulting Predictixsaid: “New times require new tools, and the Climate Change Index marks a significant advance in statistically derived warning that will ultimately save lives, bringing the emerging science of climate attribution and weather messaging to a whole new level. CSI will quickly become an essential tool for urban planners, meteorologists and risk mitigation.”

SOURCE Central Climate

Teresa H. Sadler